Skill.md
劝说集：Keynes 政策推理框架
约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯在《劝说集》（原书名《Essays in Persuasion》）中展示了如何用实际后果而非道德姿态评估经济政策。这个 Skill 适合分析债务、通胀/通缩、固定汇率、需求不足和经济政策说服，并已拆成 orchestrator + subskills，便于按问题类型精确路由。
使用方式
- 描述你要分析的具体场景、材料或决策。
- 说明目标、约束和你已经尝试过的方法。
- 让 Skill 按书中的框架给出诊断、风险和下一步建议。
完整 Skill 指令（英文原文）
Essays in Persuasion: Keynes Policy Reasoning Orchestrator
Skill Purpose
Apply John Maynard Keynes's policy reasoning from Essays in Persuasion to contemporary macroeconomic questions. This is a modular skill because users may ask separate, independently triggered questions about debt capacity, inflation versus deflation, fixed exchange-rate traps, demand shortfalls, or economic persuasion.
Routing Rules
| User intent | Route to |
|---|---|
| Sovereign debt, reparations, sanctions, fiscal capacity, creditor demands | subskills/transfer-problem.md |
| Inflation, deflation, unemployment tradeoffs, real debt burdens | subskills/inflation-deflation.md |
| Gold standard, currency pegs, euro constraints, devaluation | subskills/fixed-rate-trap.md |
| Recession, austerity, stimulus, liquidity trap, animal spirits | subskills/aggregate-demand.md |
| Critique or write an economic argument meant to persuade | subskills/economic-persuasion.md |
Execution Rules
- Identify the user's concrete policy question and economic context.
- Route to the smallest relevant subskill; combine subskills only when the question spans mechanisms.
- Use current data when the user asks about a present economy or market.
- Distinguish short-run consequences from long-run equilibrium claims.
- State what evidence would change the verdict.
Multi-Module Output Format
- Diagnosis line: identify the policy problem.
- Routed module(s): name the Keynesian lens used.
- Evidence: 2-3 data points or historical parallels.
- Verdict: recommendation with caveats.
- Revision condition: what would make the answer change.
Subskill Status
All subskills are required and present in subskills/.
CITATION RULES
Use quotes only when the user asks for source grounding or when a claim needs attribution. Reference quote anchors by topic file and anchor. Keep quoted excerpts short.
demand-confidence-quotes.md:#slump-trade-employment,#idle-workers-worldwide,#public-works-remedy,#doing-spending-enterprises,#restore-confidence-enterprise,#revive-enterprise-activity,#deflation-transfers-wealth,#active-to-inactivepolicy-diagnosis-quotes.md:#germany-pays-in-goods,#transfer-destroys-balance,#inflation-and-deflation-injure,#inflation-unjust-deflation-inexpedient,#deflation-provokes-unemployment,#reject-prewar-gold-standard,#gold-standard-links-city-wall-street,#economists-as-dentists
Critical Reminders
- Judge policy by real output, employment, price, and distributional consequences.
- Do not turn Keynes into a universal pro-stimulus slogan; context determines the prescription.
- Do not reproduce long source passages.