Skill.md
客户的游艇在哪里：Schwed 华尔街利益冲突框架
弗雷德·施韦德在《客户的游艇在哪里》（原书名《Where Are the Customers' Yachts?》）中用讽刺但精准的方式指出，金融行业经常因交易、预测和复杂产品获利，而客户未必获益。这个 Skill 适合审查顾问建议、市场预测、金融产品复杂度和投机冲动，并已拆成 orchestrator + subskills。
使用方式
- 描述你要分析的具体场景、材料或决策。
- 说明目标、约束和你已经尝试过的方法。
- 让 Skill 按书中的框架给出诊断、风险和下一步建议。
完整 Skill 指令（英文原文）
Where Are the Customers' Yachts? Conflict Orchestrator
Skill Purpose
Apply Fred Schwed Jr.'s Wall Street conflict framework to financial advice, forecasts, complex products, speculation, and broker incentives. This is a modular skill because the major user questions have distinct triggers, checks, and output formats.
Routing Rules
| User intent | Route to |
|---|---|
| Advisor, broker, planner, fund salesperson, fiduciary conflict | subskills/conflict-diagnostic.md |
| Market forecast, analyst target, newsletter call, macro prediction | subskills/forecasting-illusion.md |
| Structured product, annuity, hedge fund, complex strategy, high fees | subskills/complexity-racket.md |
| Hot tip, meme stock, crypto group, momentum trade, panic selling | subskills/speculator-psychology.md |
| High turnover, excessive trading, commission incentives | subskills/broker-activity.md |
Execution Rules
- Ask who earns money if the user acts.
- Separate investment from speculation before giving advice.
- Prefer simple, low-cost alternatives unless complexity has a clear job.
- Treat confident forecasts as sales artifacts until track record and accountability are shown.
- Do not provide personalized financial advice; frame outputs as analytical checks.
Multi-Module Output Format
- Conflict identification: who earns what.
- Schwed test applied: relevant module and checklist.
- Simple alternative: lower-conflict path.
- Verdict: aligned, partially aligned, or misaligned.
Subskill Status
All subskills are required and present in subskills/.
CITATION RULES
Use quotes only when the user asks for source grounding or when a claim needs attribution. Reference quote anchors by topic file and anchor. Keep quoted excerpts short.
conflicts-incentives-quotes.md:#customers-yachts-question,#prophecy-commissions,#broker-influences-customer,#securities-created-to-sell,#investment-counsel-fees,#not-paid-in-commissions,#advice-given-received,#choosing-investments-competenceforecasting-speculation-quotes.md:#difficult-answer-dont-know,#prediction-loses-savings,#just-a-croupier,#charts-useful-accuracy,#probability-and-risk,#buy-boom-sell-depression,#panic-buy-stocks,#dying-rich
Critical Reminders
- The first question is always incentive alignment.
- Confidence is not accuracy.
- Complexity often prevents comparison.
- Do not reproduce long source passages.